Signals from the UK activity indicators have been mixed lately and the combination of high inflationary pressures and falling consumer sentiment are likely to weigh on real consumption growth going forward. That said, consumer spending on services still has some room to grow as there remains a significant shortfall relative… Read More »
BOTTOM LINE: We expect the upcoming European flash PMIs (released on Friday, 22 April) to decline further in April, slightly below consensus expectations in the Euro area (53.5 vs 53.9 expected) and more meaningfully below expectations in the UK (56.4 vs. 58.9 expected). We expect the composite decline to be… Read More »
Many commentators expect the world to deglobalize following the US-China trade war, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine. We take a longer perspective and ask if globalization—the growth in cross-border movement of goods, capital, people, technologies, data, and ideas—has already started to reverse. Despite a rapid 2021 rebound, global… Read More »
Our Euro area financial conditions index (FCI) has tightened about 60bp since mid-November, driven by higher long-term yields and lower equity prices, with modest contributions from spreads and the Euro. Viewed across member states, the tightening has been broad-based, but with more tightening in Italy than in Germany and France.… Read More »
INTRODUCTION The Europe Persistence Scorecard aims to differentiate skill from luck by examining the ability of active European equity funds to consistently outperform their peers and their benchmark. This scorecard looks to support the well-known disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results and that oftentimes an investor… Read More »
• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »
Italy, just like other European countries, has launched last year a National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The plan is funded by the EU in the framework of the NGEU – Next Generation EU – initiative, and Italy’s share corresponds to 191.5 billion Euros, to be spent in the period 2021… Read More »
Limited impact due to National Labour contract Barclays macro team has written about how inflation affects wages in the Euro area (for example Euro area wages: Picking up (a little) dated 23-02-22, Euro Themes: Tracking the rebound of negotiated wages – Italy dated 19-01-22). Here we look at Italy only,… Read More »
Global growth expectations have dropped with the spike in oil prices, which have historically often been associated with surges in inflation, reductions in real income, and eventually recessions (Exhibit 1). However, the relationship between oil prices and growth has changed for two major reasons. On the one hand,… Read More »
• We see the West’s drive for energy security slowing growth, increasing inflation and stoking demand for non-Russian fossil fuels to alleviate consumer pain. • Data last week showed U.S. inflation at 40-year highs and a robust labor market. We expect the Fed to deliver on this year’s projected rate… Read More »
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